Weather and the business of visitor attractions: an organisational analysis using multi-level modelling

Within tourism studies, attention has repeatedly returned to the nature and strength of the relationship between tourism and weather. For many tourism organisations operating multiple units, the scale of this challenge is amplified, not least because the weather is spatially variable and its effects are context-contingent. This paper reports on a large-scale study of 65 visitor attractions operated by the National Trust in the United Kingdom. Informed by 63,225 sets of day-observations over three financial years before the Coronavirus Pandemic, multi-level modelling of weather and other locational data was conducted. Weather – with location and nature of offer – accounted for 43.6% and 52.4% in the variance of daily visitor numbers and sales, respectively, over the period. Methodologically, the paper demonstrates, for the first time, the value of applying multi-level modelling to complex organisational research problems in tourism requiring simultaneously portfolio- and property-level perspectives. It argues for more nuanced thinking about, and strategic management for, weather in tourism property portfolios involving clearer differentiation of visitor- and revenue-based performance; closer consideration of how the effects of weather are related to quality of offer; and greater recognition that changes in weather take place as other key operating parameters and market conditions evolve.